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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 82% (314–69, n=383) | 46% (560–667, n=1227) | 65% (889–469, n=1358) |
| Consensus PnL | -$551K | $9.4M | $4.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #314 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #140 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 55% (11 of 20 open) | 73% (33 of 45 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=15 | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 723 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 3% of 29) | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 13% (won 15% of 168) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 69% of 42) | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 20% (won 39% of 256) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 79% of 103) | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 24% (won 58% of 314) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 98% of 549) | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 43% (won 93% of 550) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BABELCONSTEL | BreakTheBank | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $6.8K | No $258K | — |