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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | smoltrader | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (17–14, n=31) | 95% (310–15, n=325) | no settled market |
| Consensus PnL | -$239K | $8.4M | — |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #9 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #368 |
| Sides with the consensus | 56% (14 of 25 open) | 84% (32 of 38 open) | 100% (15 of 15 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | NHL −1 pts, n=136 | — | Science −21 pts, n=18 |
| Settled positions, side won | 59% of 7152 at avg 55¢, ROI +2% | 97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 44% of 1625 at avg 45¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 11% of 1182) | 10% (won 82% of 60) | 49% (won 5% of 796) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 46% of 1753) | 36% (won 98% of 212) | 6% (won 34% of 102) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 66% of 2092) | 35% (won 100% of 205) | 7% (won 66% of 116) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 91% of 2125) | 20% (won 100% of 116) | 38% (won 93% of 611) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | BreakTheBank | smoltrader |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $1.5K | Yes $30K | — |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus Yes | No $26 | No $41K | — |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? same side · consensus No | No $4.5K | No $2.4K | — |