Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 68% (171–79, n=250) · PM monthly #713 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$36.1K
Record
171W / 79L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 250 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#845
Source
PM monthly #713
Record (90 d)
9/9 · 100%
Trades
0
Markets
269
Volume
$796.9K
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Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $23K · now 87¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (66% of 35)
- Exact Score: FK Radnicki Nis 0 - 0 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?Yes $1.4K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Spread: FK Radnicki Nis (-2.5)FK Radnicki Nis $945 · now 49¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Spread: FK Radnicki Nis (-1.5)FK Radnicki Nis $939 · now 48¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (FK Zeleznicar Pancevo)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes $665 · now 30¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (No)
- FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo: O/U 2.5Over $263 · now 53¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
Specialties
189 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 59¢- Soccer
+54 pts
side won 100% of 32 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +47%
- Esports
+22 pts
side won 85% of 155 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 83% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 80% of 35)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 85% of 95)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 96% of 47)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.