Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo: O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 49¢ · $785 held · ended Nov 2

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$784.95

Combined PnL

$5.9

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 48.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$448.91

Total Shares770

Combined PnL+$42.5

Over4 traders

Total Value$336.04

Total Shares715

Combined PnL-$36.6

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 54¢	$253.68	$248.87	-$4.81	51% 17649-16650 (34299)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	Underavg 39.2¢	$86.72	$117.24	+$30.52	75% 107-36 (143)
poshposh	Overavg 58.5¢	$142.81	$114.7	-$28.11	58% 11469-8326 (19795)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$92	$94	+$2	58% 43654-31752 (75406)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 46¢	$84.15	$85.98	+$1.83	50% 26441-26261 (52702)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR<$100	Underavg 41.7¢	$89.2	$72.2	+$16.99	82% 71-16 (87)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 61¢	$53.68	$41.36	-$12.32	46% 7951-9285 (17236)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.6	-$0.2	52% 6399-5797 (12196)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$253.68

Value

$248.87

PnL

-$4.81

Record

51%

17649-16650 (34299)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

Under

Invested

$86.72

Value

$117.24

PnL

+$30.52

Record

75%

107-36 (143)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$142.81

Value

$114.7

PnL

-$28.11

Record

58%

11469-8326 (19795)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$92

Value

$94

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

43654-31752 (75406)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$84.15

Value

$85.98

PnL

+$1.83

Record

50%

26441-26261 (52702)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.2

Value

$72.2

PnL

+$16.99

Record

82%

71-16 (87)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$53.68

Value

$41.36

PnL

-$12.32

Record

46%

7951-9285 (17236)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

6399-5797 (12196)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.