Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FK Radnicki Nis, while the market favors FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (51%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: FK Radnicki Nis (-2.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold FK Radnicki Nis (45%) · FK Radnicki Nis at 49¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 2

FK Radnicki Nis49¢FK Zeleznicar Pancevo51¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FK Radnicki Nis

Consensus Traders

FK Radnicki Nis 45%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$802.26

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 49.4¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFK Radnicki Nis at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Radnicki Nis

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Radnicki Nis49%

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Radnicki Nis5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares14,675

Combined PnL+$1.3K

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,452

Combined PnL-$449.74

FK Radnicki Nis — 45%FK Zeleznicar Pancevo — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on FK Radnicki Nis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Radnicki Nis 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFK Radnicki Nis 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFK Zeleznicar Pancevo 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 40.8¢	$4.7K	$5.7K	+$987.48	82% 75-17 (92)
alpheclabs2	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 54.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$107.55	47% 1103-1248 (2351)
LO lovefieldCTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 44.1¢	$707.14	$791.65	+$84.51	—
WH whigCTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 37.4¢	$471.48	$622.79	+$145.01	59% 408-281 (689)
CI cigarettes	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 63.6¢	$696.25	$553.94	-$141.75	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 58.3¢	$370.71	$321.72	-$45.81	50% 1334-1348 (2682)
poshposh	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 71.1¢	$271.95	$193.66	-$78.1	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
LR lryyy	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 64¢	$236.68	$187.05	-$47.78	47% 9079-10211 (19290)
US User7429	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 59.3¢	$197.37	$168.45	-$28.75	55% 8674-6972 (15646)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 38.2¢	$110.26	$142.59	+$32.33	75% 108-36 (144)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	FK Radnicki Nisavg 1.5¢	$0.08	$2.76	+$2.67	50% 27298-27227 (54525)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$4,702.59

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$987.48

Record

82%

75-17 (92)

alpheclabs2

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$1,441.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$107.55

Record

47%

1103-1248 (2351)

lovefieldCTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$707.14

Value

$791.65

PnL

+$84.51

Record

—

whigCTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$471.48

Value

$622.79

PnL

+$145.01

Record

59%

408-281 (689)

cigarettes

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$696.25

Value

$553.94

PnL

-$141.75

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$370.71

Value

$321.72

PnL

-$45.81

Record

50%

1334-1348 (2682)

poshposh

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$271.95

Value

$193.66

PnL

-$78.1

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

lryyy

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$236.68

Value

$187.05

PnL

-$47.78

Record

47%

9079-10211 (19290)

User7429

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$197.37

Value

$168.45

PnL

-$28.75

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$110.26

Value

$142.59

PnL

+$32.33

Record

75%

108-36 (144)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$0.08

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$2.67

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Research grade

NeutralFK Radnicki Nis at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FK Radnicki Nis

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on FK Radnicki Nis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Radnicki Nis 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpFK Radnicki Nis 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFK Zeleznicar Pancevo 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Radnicki Nis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.6%

49.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.