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4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$100.48

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 94.5¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,654

Combined PnL+$932.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,433

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Noavg 23¢	$763.33	$1.8K	+$1.0K	42% 2304-3135 (5439)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Yesavg 81.1¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$821.85	82% 71-16 (87)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 70¢	$700	$455	-$245	75% 107-36 (143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 92¢	$230	$136.25	-$93.75	58% 48541-34684 (83225)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$7.92	$46.86	+$38.95	58% 43640-31740 (75380)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 92¢	$65.09	$38.56	-$26.53	54% 336-289 (625)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$15.43	$10.48	-$4.95	60% 894-585 (1479)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.66	$6	+$5.34	43% 4053-5291 (9344)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Invested

$763.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

42%

2304-3135 (5439)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Yes

Invested

$1,871.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$821.85

Record

82%

71-16 (87)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$455

PnL

-$245

Record

75%

107-36 (143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$230

Value

$136.25

PnL

-$93.75

Record

58%

48541-34684 (83225)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$46.86

PnL

+$38.95

Record

58%

43640-31740 (75380)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$65.09

Value

$38.56

PnL

-$26.53

Record

54%

336-289 (625)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.43

Value

$10.48

PnL

-$4.95

Record

60%

894-585 (1479)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

PnL

+$5.34

Record

43%

4053-5291 (9344)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.