Spread: FK Radnicki Nis (-1.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (75%) · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

FK Radnicki Nis48¢FK Zeleznicar Pancevo52¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Consensus Traders

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 75%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$62.71

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 52.5¢

-24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFK Zeleznicar Pancevo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Radnicki Nis48%

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Radnicki Nis3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,833

Combined PnL+$500.87

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,705

Combined PnL-$438.17

FK Radnicki Nis — 25%FK Zeleznicar Pancevo — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 32.6¢	$472.03	$687.12	+$215.09	60% 894-585 (1479)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 36¢	$336.58	$444.61	+$108.04	82% 71-16 (87)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 64¢	$411.91	$337.75	-$74.16	50% 1280-1293 (2573)
FL Flaznorp	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 92¢	$408.47	$233.09	-$175.38	51% 17649-16650 (34299)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	FK Radnicki Nisavg 8¢	$36	$213.74	+$177.75	50% 26441-26261 (52702)
alpheclabs2	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 53.2¢	$210.74	$207.9	-$2.84	49% 177-187 (364)
CI cigarettes	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 67.2¢	$263.47	$205.87	-$57.6	54% 21611-18652 (40263)
poshposh	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 71.4¢	$190.06	$139.79	-$50.26	58% 11469-8326 (19795)
US User7429	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 69.4¢	$153.23	$115.84	-$37.39	55% 8538-6853 (15391)
LR lryyy	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 69.3¢	$150.28	$113.89	-$36.39	46% 7951-9285 (17236)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 54¢	$64.53	$62.74	-$1.79	52% 249-233 (482)
HRTrading<$100	FK Zeleznicar Pancevoavg 92¢	$5.52	$3.15	-$2.37	52% 6399-5797 (12196)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$472.03

Value

$687.12

PnL

+$215.09

Record

60%

894-585 (1479)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$336.58

Value

$444.61

PnL

+$108.04

Record

82%

71-16 (87)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$411.91

Value

$337.75

PnL

-$74.16

Record

50%

1280-1293 (2573)

Flaznorp

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$408.47

Value

$233.09

PnL

-$175.38

Record

51%

17649-16650 (34299)

GoalLineGhostCTR

FK Radnicki Nis

Invested

$36

Value

$213.74

PnL

+$177.75

Record

50%

26441-26261 (52702)

alpheclabs2

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$210.74

Value

$207.9

PnL

-$2.84

Record

49%

177-187 (364)

cigarettes

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$263.47

Value

$205.87

PnL

-$57.6

Record

54%

21611-18652 (40263)

poshposh

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$190.06

Value

$139.79

PnL

-$50.26

Record

58%

11469-8326 (19795)

User7429

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$153.23

Value

$115.84

PnL

-$37.39

Record

55%

8538-6853 (15391)

lryyy

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$150.28

Value

$113.89

PnL

-$36.39

Record

46%

7951-9285 (17236)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$64.53

Value

$62.74

PnL

-$1.79

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

HRTrading<$100

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Invested

$5.52

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$2.37

Record

52%

6399-5797 (12196)

Research grade

NeutralFK Zeleznicar Pancevo at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Zeleznicar Pancevo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.