Will Benfica win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 30%
$1.3K
$130.27
86.7¢ → 85¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
277h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DavidShekel | Noavg 87¢ | $663.88 | $648.62 | -$15.26 | 58% 574-408 (982) |
 thefakenick | Noavg 87¢ | $305.46 | $298.37 | -$2.61 | 56% 837-657 (1494) |
GA Gaditima | Noavg 85¢ | $152.55 | $152.55 | +$0 | 48% 6864-7497 (14361) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $10.24 | $64.5 | +$54.26 | 43% 2055-2685 (4740) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $14.4 | $47.72 | +$44.29 | 72% 12562-4974 (17536) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 | 56% 3080-2460 (5540) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | $44.81 | $44.81 | +$37.7 | 57% 17814-13331 (31145) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $28 | $30 | +$2 | 41% 2002-2836 (4838) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.6 | $10.08 | +$8.48 | 74% 12150-4326 (16476) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $0.48 | $1.89 | +$1.42 | 55% 4995-4061 (9056) |
DavidShekelInvested
$663.88
Value
$648.62
PnL
-$15.26
Record
58%
574-408 (982)
thefakenickInvested
$305.46
Value
$298.37
PnL
-$2.61
Record
56%
837-657 (1494)
Invested
$152.55
Value
$152.55
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
6864-7497 (14361)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$64.5
PnL
+$54.26
Record
43%
2055-2685 (4740)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$47.72
PnL
+$44.29
Record
72%
12562-4974 (17536)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$45
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3080-2460 (5540)
Invested
$44.81
Value
$44.81
PnL
+$37.7
Record
57%
17814-13331 (31145)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$28
Value
$30
PnL
+$2
Record
41%
2002-2836 (4838)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$8.48
Record
74%
12150-4326 (16476)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$0.48
Value
$1.89
PnL
+$1.42
Record
55%
4995-4061 (9056)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.