Will Manchester City finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $723 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$722.84

Combined PnL

$279.11

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 64¢

+37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$591.32

Total Shares1,315

Combined PnL+$279.11

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justtryingtosurvive	Noavg 54.9¢	$178.97	$258.97	+$80.01	— 4-0 (4)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 28.3¢	$11.24	$171.98	+$160.74	41% 1964-2771 (4735)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 67¢	$132.83	$131.52	-$0.08	20% 318-1310 (1628)
└ No leg	Noavg 67¢	$88.12	$84.17	-$3.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$43.4	$47.35	+$3.87
DR Dreamwire<$100	Noavg 57¢	$72.2	$86.14	+$13.93	83% 2622-527 (3149)
probability<$100	Noavg 54¢	$49.8	$74.24	+$24.44	41% 1361-1920 (3281)

justtryingtosurvive

Invested

$178.97

Value

$258.97

PnL

+$80.01

Record

—

4-0 (4)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$11.24

Value

$171.98

PnL

+$160.74

Record

41%

1964-2771 (4735)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$132.83

Value

$131.52

PnL

-$0.08

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Both legs:

No$88.1267¢-$3.95

Yes$43.433¢+$3.87

Dreamwire<$100

Invested

$72.2

Value

$86.14

PnL

+$13.93

Record

83%

2622-527 (3149)

probability<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$74.24

PnL

+$24.44

Record

41%

1361-1920 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.