Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 95¢ · $314 held · ends Jun 19, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sat, Jun 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$313.61

Combined PnL

$25.9

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$234.07

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$5.07

Yes6 traders

Total Value$78.7

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL+$20.83

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DavidShekel	Noavg 92.6¢	$247.3	$234.07	+$5.07	58% 574-408 (982)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$26.95	$26	-$0.2	41% 2002-2837 (4839)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$10	$22.47	+$12.47	43% 2055-2685 (4740)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$3.06	$13.42	+$10.36	40% 2684-4012 (6696)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$8.11	$8.36	+$0.5	41% 1407-2028 (3435)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$193.66	$4.54	-$4.67	72% 12569-4976 (17545)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.65	$3.91	+$2.37	41% 1299-1888 (3187)

DavidShekel

Invested

$247.3

Value

$234.07

PnL

+$5.07

Record

58%

574-408 (982)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.95

Value

$26

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

2002-2837 (4839)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$12.47

Record

43%

2055-2685 (4740)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$13.42

PnL

+$10.36

Record

40%

2684-4012 (6696)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$0.5

Record

41%

1407-2028 (3435)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$193.66

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$4.67

Record

72%

12569-4976 (17545)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$2.37

Record

41%

1299-1888 (3187)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.