Consensus PnL -$4.4K · win rate 50% (786–771, n=1557) · was PM monthly #789 · holds 72 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-4.4K
Record
786W / 771L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1557 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1224
Source
PM monthly #789
Record (90 d)
487/540 · 90%
Trades
5,671
Markets
2,159
Volume
$1.3M
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Top consensus positions
72 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 72 on the consensus side (61%)- Chennai Open: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Polina KudermetovaPolina Kudermetova $6.8K · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (85% of 27)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)AEK $4.3K · now 40¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (80% of 18)
- Taranto: Felix Gill vs Marcus WaltersFelix Gill $4.0K · now 100¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
- Villa Maria: Juan Bautista Torres vs Nicolas BrunaJuan Bautista Torres $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-11-04?No $1.1K · now 73¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (82% of 12)
- Exact Score: AEK 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No $819 · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-04?No $742 · now 78¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto $485 · now 28¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (SSC Napoli)
Specialties
367 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 70¢- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 72 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +49%
- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 100% of 258 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +23%
- Tennis
+20 pts
side won 100% of 18 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 100% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 83)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 100% of 201)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.