Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-11-04?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 73¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$114.31

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 72.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares14,818

Combined PnL+$142.56

Yes2 traders

Total Value$572.01

Total Shares2,080

Combined PnL-$28.25

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 71.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$48.02	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$7.41	71% 7038-2817 (9855)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.9¢	$917.11	$904.24	-$12.87
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$742.56	$791.7	+$5.46
GC GC-P	Noavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$24.26	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 70.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.97	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
LI Limousin	Noavg 70.6¢	$946.42	$952.04	+$5.62	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69.7¢	$1.0K	$933.57	+$15.35	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
NM NM-P	Noavg 70.1¢	$755.23	$780.61	+$25.38	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$266.44	$542.43	-$25.74	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
CA Cannae	Noavg 71¢	$385.14	$393.28	+$8.14	53% 16492-14656 (31148)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$42.82	$44.71	+$1.89	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$32.09	$29.58	-$2.51	64% 1885-1044 (2929)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.32	$4.26	-$0.06	53% 1134-1025 (2159)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,369.78

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$48.02

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,659.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$7.41

Record

71%

7038-2817 (9855)

Both legs:

Yes$917.1127.9¢-$12.87

No$742.5668¢+$5.46

GC-P

Invested

$1,241.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$24.26

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,051.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.97

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

Limousin

Invested

$946.42

Value

$952.04

PnL

+$5.62

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,026.73

Value

$933.57

PnL

+$15.35

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

NM-P

Invested

$755.23

Value

$780.61

PnL

+$25.38

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$266.44

Value

$542.43

PnL

-$25.74

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

Cannae

Invested

$385.14

Value

$393.28

PnL

+$8.14

Record

53%

16492-14656 (31148)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.82

Value

$44.71

PnL

+$1.89

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.09

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$2.51

Record

64%

1885-1044 (2929)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.