Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold SSC Napoli (38%) · SSC Napoli at 72¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
SSC Napoli
8
SSC Napoli 38%
$7.8K
-$85.25
72.6¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSSC Napoli at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-21 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on SSC Napoli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | SSC Napoliavg 72.5¢ | $5.6K | $5.5K | -$63.08 | 71% 7086-2836 (9922) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | FC Portoavg 27.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$6.19 | 50% 27753-27615 (55368) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | FC Portoavg 29¢ | $538.14 | $528.99 | -$9.15 | 51% 24195-22931 (47126) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | FC Portoavg 29¢ | $511.34 | $502.38 | -$8.95 | 51% 1087-1033 (2120) |
 nigiri99 | SSC Napoliavg 75¢ | $198.65 | $188.15 | -$10.5 | 46% 8395-9850 (18245) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | SSC Napoliavg 73¢ | $42.74 | $23.98 | +$0.02 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | FC Portoavg 28¢ | $12.14 | $12.36 | +$0.22 | 50% 25473-25171 (50644) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | FC Portoavg 28¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 | 54% 1184-1019 (2203) |
Invested
$5,569.8
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$63.08
Record
71%
7086-2836 (9922)
Invested
$1,000.74
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$6.19
Record
50%
27753-27615 (55368)
Invested
$538.14
Value
$528.99
PnL
-$9.15
Record
51%
24195-22931 (47126)
Invested
$511.34
Value
$502.38
PnL
-$8.95
Record
51%
1087-1033 (2120)
nigiri99Invested
$198.65
Value
$188.15
PnL
-$10.5
Record
46%
8395-9850 (18245)
Invested
$42.74
Value
$23.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
Invested
$12.14
Value
$12.36
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
25473-25171 (50644)
Invested
$7
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1184-1019 (2203)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.