Villa Maria: Juan Bautista Torres vs Nicolas Bruna

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Bautista Torres (80%) · Juan Bautista Torres at 96¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 10

Juan Bautista Torres96¢Nicolas Bruna4¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Bautista Torres

Consensus Traders

Juan Bautista Torres 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$126.61

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 95.5¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Juan Bautista Torres96%

Nicolas Bruna4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Bautista Torres12 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,487

Combined PnL+$116.64

Nicolas Bruna3 traders

Total Value$37.87

Total Shares814

Combined PnL+$9.97

Juan Bautista Torres — 80%Nicolas Bruna — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJuan Bautista Torres 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuan Bautista Torres 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Juan Bautista Torres 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Juan Bautista Torresavg 96.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$40.33	51% 1041-990 (2031)
FL Flaznorp	Juan Bautista Torresavg 91¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$63.25	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
FL flatbarrel	Juan Bautista Torresavg 90.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$62.9	58% 2788-1996 (4784)
VE Venusian	Juan Bautista Torresavg 96.7¢	$936.83	$923.03	-$13.8	52% 1107-1025 (2132)
LI Limousin	Juan Bautista Torresavg 96¢	$626.98	$621.07	-$5.91	54% 1142-961 (2103)
38 38791873984189	Juan Bautista Torresavg 93.9¢	$1.4K	$490.87	+$53.74	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
OM omnibus-076daa	Juan Bautista Torresavg 97.1¢	$222.14	$216.91	-$5.23	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 95.6¢	$169.23	$154.79	-$14.44	53% 1098-984 (2082)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 95.6¢	$92.47	$91.67	-$0.81
└ Nicolas Bruna leg	Nicolas Brunaavg 6.3¢	$76.75	$63.12	-$13.63
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 95¢	$47.49	$47.4	-$0.09	57% 19042-14086 (33128)
VeryLucky888<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 90¢	$32.3	$33.7	+$1.4	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
DI dips.<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 96.1¢	$28.83	$28.44	-$0.07	47% 10232-11605 (21837)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Nicolas Brunaavg 3.2¢	$18.84	$26.59	+$7.75	47% 10953-12334 (23287)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 92¢	$13.09	$12.61	+$0.56	60% 4291-2867 (7158)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Nicolas Brunaavg 3¢	$5.61	$9.72	+$4.11	51% 4553-4417 (8970)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.74	+$0.24	52% 8547-7785 (16332)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Nicolas Brunaavg 11.5¢	$3.45	$1.56	-$1.89	46% 8334-9729 (18063)

MadridTime

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$1,969.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$40.33

Record

51%

1041-990 (2031)

Flaznorp

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$1,471.86

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$63.25

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

flatbarrel

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$1,318.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$62.9

Record

58%

2788-1996 (4784)

Venusian

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$936.83

Value

$923.03

PnL

-$13.8

Record

52%

1107-1025 (2132)

Limousin

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$626.98

Value

$621.07

PnL

-$5.91

Record

54%

1142-961 (2103)

38791873984189

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$1,390.96

Value

$490.87

PnL

+$53.74

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

omnibus-076daa

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$222.14

Value

$216.91

PnL

-$5.23

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$169.23

Value

$154.79

PnL

-$14.44

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$92.4795.6¢-$0.81

Nicolas Bruna$76.756.3¢-$13.63

BillBenter2026<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$47.49

Value

$47.4

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

19042-14086 (33128)

VeryLucky888<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$32.3

Value

$33.7

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

dips.<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$28.83

Value

$28.44

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

10232-11605 (21837)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$18.84

Value

$26.59

PnL

+$7.75

Record

47%

10953-12334 (23287)

thestingsnake<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$13.09

Value

$12.61

PnL

+$0.56

Record

60%

4291-2867 (7158)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$5.61

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$4.11

Record

51%

4553-4417 (8970)

ameisgoat11<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

8547-7785 (16332)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$3.45

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$1.89

Record

46%

8334-9729 (18063)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJuan Bautista Torres 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuan Bautista Torres 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Juan Bautista Torres 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Bautista Torres wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.