Taranto: Felix Gill vs Marcus Walters

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Felix Gill (94%) · Felix Gill at 91¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 11

Felix Gill91¢Marcus Walters9¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Felix Gill

Consensus Traders

Felix Gill 94%

Total Value

$19.4K

Combined PnL

-$206.48

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 90.5¢

+7% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Felix Gill91%

Marcus Walters10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Felix Gill16 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares22,288

Combined PnL-$205.38

Marcus Walters1 trader

Total Value$1.78

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$1.1

Felix Gill — 94%Marcus Walters — 6%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Felix Gillavg 88.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$15.14	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
RN1	Felix Gillavg 69¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$26.75	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
FL Flaznorp	Felix Gillavg 91.2¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$100.61	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
TH thestingsnake	Felix Gillavg 87.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$58.22	60% 4334-2905 (7239)
LI LightParadox	Felix Gillavg 89.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$35.83	53% 1134-1025 (2159)
VE Venusian	Felix Gillavg 91.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$54.34	52% 1149-1066 (2215)
38 38791873984189	Felix Gillavg 86.4¢	$2.8K	$787.49	+$59.85	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
LI Limousin	Felix Gillavg 86.6¢	$760.41	$777.47	+$17.06	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
1L 1lovejump	Felix Gillavg 86.7¢	$1.5K	$622.6	-$36.85	52% 730-668 (1398)
PA Paul973973	Felix Gillavg 90.4¢	$502.5	$438.89	-$63.61	89% 980-125 (1105)
EU Eulhunter	Felix Gillavg 92.9¢	$416.62	$413.15	-$3.47	54% 6122-5151 (11273)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Felix Gillavg 90.9¢	$188.55	$185.54	-$3.01	52% 14207-12987 (27194)
CI cigarettes<$100	Felix Gillavg 92¢	$46	$45.5	-$0.5	53% 22252-19379 (41631)
VeryLucky888<$100	Felix Gillavg 81¢	$8.1	$7.9	-$0.2	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Felix Gillavg 72¢	$7.2	$7.15	-$0.05	82% 6948-1498 (8446)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Felix Gillavg 82¢	$4.1	$3.95	-$0.15	52% 8553-7794 (16347)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Marcus Waltersavg 17¢	$2.88	$1.78	-$1.1	47% 10953-12334 (23287)

MadridTime

Felix Gill

Invested

$3,882.53

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$15.14

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

RN1

Felix Gill

Invested

$3,692.09

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$26.75

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

Flaznorp

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,941.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$100.61

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

thestingsnake

Felix Gill

Invested

$1,977.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$58.22

Record

60%

4334-2905 (7239)

LightParadox

Felix Gill

Invested

$1,907.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$35.83

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

Venusian

Felix Gill

Invested

$1,916.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$54.34

Record

52%

1149-1066 (2215)

38791873984189

Felix Gill

Invested

$2,751.34

Value

$787.49

PnL

+$59.85

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

Limousin

Felix Gill

Invested

$760.41

Value

$777.47

PnL

+$17.06

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

1lovejump

Felix Gill

Invested

$1,462.86

Value

$622.6

PnL

-$36.85

Record

52%

730-668 (1398)

Paul973973

Felix Gill

Invested

$502.5

Value

$438.89

PnL

-$63.61

Record

89%

980-125 (1105)

Eulhunter

Felix Gill

Invested

$416.62

Value

$413.15

PnL

-$3.47

Record

54%

6122-5151 (11273)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Felix Gill

Invested

$188.55

Value

$185.54

PnL

-$3.01

Record

52%

14207-12987 (27194)

cigarettes<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$46

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

22252-19379 (41631)

VeryLucky888<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$8.1

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

82%

6948-1498 (8446)

ameisgoat11<$100

Felix Gill

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8553-7794 (16347)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Marcus Walters

Invested

$2.88

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$1.1

Record

47%

10953-12334 (23287)

Research grade

NeutralFelix Gill at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Felix Gill

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Felix Gill wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.