Consensus PnL $31K · win rate 44% (526–671, n=1197) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$30.9K
Record
526W / 671L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 1197 settled
Batting Avg
54.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2312
Source
PM monthly #996
Record (90 d)
217/443 · 49%
Trades
3,378
Markets
1,769
Volume
$1.2M
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Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 18 on the consensus side (72%)- Will Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?No $483 · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (17% of 6)
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $343 · now 4¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?No $292 · now 63¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes $258 · now 48¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes $210 · now 65¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (40% of 6)
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?Yes $184 · now 39¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (14% of 7)
- Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of December 2026?No $176 · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?No $149 · now 75¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
Specialties
990 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 43¢- Tech
+3 pts
side won 43% of 490 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +1%
- Economy
+2 pts
side won 35% of 23 · avg entry 32¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 40% of 15 at an average 63¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 3% of 498)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 39% of 51)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 65% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 94% of 375)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.