Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 61¢ · $778 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$778.3
$31.42
61.7¢ → 60.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 62.4¢ | $1.2K | $656.43 | +$26.5 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $71.93 | $62.61 | -$0.7 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $35.08 | $41.49 | +$6.41 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $10.46 | $9.9 | -$0.56 | 32% 4361-9392 (13753) |
C2 0xc22b...deab<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $8.1 | $7.87 | -$0.23 | — |
Invested
$1,207.44
Value
$656.43
PnL
+$26.5
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$71.93
Value
$62.61
PnL
-$0.7
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$35.08
Value
$41.49
PnL
+$6.41
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
Invested
$10.46
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.56
Record
32%
4361-9392 (13753)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$7.87
PnL
-$0.23
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.