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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $233 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$232.63
$52.63
91.3¢ → 97.8¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $327.33 | $178.03 | +$31.08 | 43% 688-904 (1592) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $92.99 | $27.2 | +$26.05 | 51% 3491-3371 (6862) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $15.55 | $16.3 | +$0.75 | 17% 4208-19852 (24060) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $4.4 | $7.4 | -$3.5 | 16% 267-1368 (1635) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $3.7 | -$1.75 | 17% 1066-5342 (6408) |
Invested
$327.33
Value
$178.03
PnL
+$31.08
Record
43%
688-904 (1592)
Invested
$92.99
Value
$27.2
PnL
+$26.05
Record
51%
3491-3371 (6862)
2B9S<$100Invested
$15.55
Value
$16.3
PnL
+$0.75
Record
17%
4208-19852 (24060)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$7.4
PnL
-$3.5
Record
16%
267-1368 (1635)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$3.7
PnL
-$1.75
Record
17%
1066-5342 (6408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.