Will Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 98¢ · $500 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$500.44
-$2.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $472.65 | $478.03 | +$5.38 | 43% 688-904 (1592) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $24.72 | $16.64 | -$7.41 | 35% 17563-32834 (50397) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.29 | $2.29 | +$0.22 | 17% 1065-5312 (6377) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.98 | $1.98 | +$0.19 | 29% 2268-5613 (7881) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $1.28 | $1.24 | -$0.04 | 16% 266-1363 (1629) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $1.3 | $0.26 | -$1 | 24% 302-944 (1246) |
Invested
$472.65
Value
$478.03
PnL
+$5.38
Record
43%
688-904 (1592)
Invested
$24.72
Value
$16.64
PnL
-$7.41
Record
35%
17563-32834 (50397)
Invested
$2.29
Value
$2.29
PnL
+$0.22
Record
17%
1065-5312 (6377)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.19
Record
29%
2268-5613 (7881)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$0.04
Record
16%
266-1363 (1629)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$1
Record
24%
302-944 (1246)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.