Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 62¢ · $720 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$719.53
$181.09
27¢ → 62¢
+129% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $102.37 | $313.44 | +$211.07 | 52% 1139-1034 (2173) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $643.39 | $297.31 | -$5.13 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $181.75 | $214.16 | +$23.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.4¢ | $110.33 | $83.15 | -$28.62 | |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 50.1¢ | $128.64 | $82.32 | -$27.92 | 42% 5219-7151 (12370) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $80.6 | $26.46 | -$2.06 | 56% 15310-11850 (27160) |
Invested
$102.37
Value
$313.44
PnL
+$211.07
Record
52%
1139-1034 (2173)
Invested
$643.39
Value
$297.31
PnL
-$5.13
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.64
Value
$82.32
PnL
-$27.92
Record
42%
5219-7151 (12370)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$80.6
Value
$26.46
PnL
-$2.06
Record
56%
15310-11850 (27160)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.