Consensus PnL $24K · win rate 61% (327–211, n=538) · PM monthly #937 · holds 39 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.0K
Record
327W / 211L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 538 settled
Batting Avg
59.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#801
Source
PM monthly #937
Record (90 d)
83/147 · 56%
Trades
1,527
Markets
841
Volume
$1.1M
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Top consensus positions
39 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 39 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No $5.0K · now 79¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (67% of 11)
- US imports Russian diesel by March 31?No $4.9K · now 78¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?No $4.9K · now 83¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $4.9K · now 92¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes $4.2K · now 19¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?No $4.0K · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (86% of 8)
- US imports Russian diesel by December 31?No $3.8K · now 85¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (43% of 16)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $3.6K · now 11¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
555 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 45¢- Elections
+10 pts
side won 56% of 59 · avg entry 46¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 50% of 351 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −2%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 30% of 23 · avg entry 27¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 25% of 20 at an average 34¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 5% of 238)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 37% of 54)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 75% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 94% of 196)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.