Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 60% (320–210, n=530) · PM monthly #974 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.8K
Record
320W / 210L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 530 settled
Batting Avg
59.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#813
Source
PM monthly #974
Record (90 d)
76/140 · 54%
Trades
1,527
Markets
814
Volume
$1.1M
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Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 20 of 32 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No $5.9K · now 78¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (70% of 11)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $4.7K · now 92¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- US imports Russian diesel by December 31?No $4.3K · now 82¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (47% of 15)
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes $4.1K · now 19¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No $3.1K · now 67¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $3.1K · now 11¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?No $2.7K · now 85¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes $2.1K · now 19¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (50% of 7)
Specialties
543 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 45¢- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 50% of 351 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −2%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 50% of 52 · avg entry 43¢
ROI −1%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 30% of 23 · avg entry 27¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 28% of 18 at an average 38¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 6% of 236)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 37% of 54)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 73% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 94% of 191)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.