Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
5
No 80%
$2.6K
$21.86
85.9¢ → 83.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 84%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$17.26 | 73% 2897-1055 (3952) |
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 87¢ | $515 | $501 | -$14 | 50% 1526-1497 (3023) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 88¢ | $352 | $334 | -$16 | 77% 809-246 (1055) |
 Lolakis | Noavg 82.5¢ | $310.78 | $301.75 | -$9.03 | 61% 644-409 (1053) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $160.54 | $138.69 | +$78.15 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$1,298.18
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$17.26
Record
73%
2897-1055 (3952)
ScottyNoooInvested
$515
Value
$501
PnL
-$14
Record
50%
1526-1497 (3023)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$352
Value
$334
PnL
-$16
Record
77%
809-246 (1055)
LolakisInvested
$310.78
Value
$301.75
PnL
-$9.03
Record
61%
644-409 (1053)
Invested
$160.54
Value
$138.69
PnL
+$78.15
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.