Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $139 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$138.86
$2.12
77.2¢ → 78.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
716h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $65.67 | $62.94 | -$2.73 | 73% 2947-1072 (4019) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $31.17 | $30.94 | -$0.24 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $16.2 | $19.35 | +$3.15 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
 HorribleWork<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $17.87 | $19.05 | +$1.19 | 60% 465-309 (774) |
 GollumGekko<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $5.5 | $6.25 | +$0.76 | 69% 2073-953 (3026) |
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$65.67
Value
$62.94
PnL
-$2.73
Record
73%
2947-1072 (4019)
Invested
$31.17
Value
$30.94
PnL
-$0.24
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$19.35
PnL
+$3.15
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
HorribleWork<$100Invested
$17.87
Value
$19.05
PnL
+$1.19
Record
60%
465-309 (774)
GollumGekko<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.76
Record
69%
2073-953 (3026)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.