Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $7K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$7.4K
$65.39
83.3¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
845h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.3K | $5.1K | -$72.29 | 61% 456-293 (749) |
 Debosnys | Noavg 79¢ | $776.15 | $837.03 | +$33.65 | 89% 1896-229 (2125) |
 thanksforplayinCTR | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $787.7 | $826.94 | +$39.24 | 56% 735-579 (1314) |
32 328.400.fundCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $396.05 | $462.12 | +$66.07 | 59% 41-29 (70) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 83¢ | $166.08 | $165.08 | -$1 | 40% 6647-10049 (16696) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $0.47 | $0.15 | -$0.29 | 59% 834-590 (1424) |
Invested
$5,284.7
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$72.29
Record
61%
456-293 (749)
DebosnysInvested
$776.15
Value
$837.03
PnL
+$33.65
Record
89%
1896-229 (2125)
thanksforplayinCTRInvested
$787.7
Value
$826.94
PnL
+$39.24
Record
56%
735-579 (1314)
Invested
$396.05
Value
$462.12
PnL
+$66.07
Record
59%
41-29 (70)
HaradwaithInvested
$166.08
Value
$165.08
PnL
-$1
Record
40%
6647-10049 (16696)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.29
Record
59%
834-590 (1424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.