Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $8K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$8.1K
$197.3
83.4¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
788h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.3K | $5.1K | +$94.36 | 63% 447-259 (706) |
 thanksforplayinCTR | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$40.37 | 56% 455-356 (811) |
 Debosnys | Noavg 79¢ | $788.81 | $851.8 | +$62.98 | 89% 1881-227 (2108) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 83.5¢ | $366.18 | $378.19 | +$12.01 | 41% 6281-9214 (15495) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 84.1¢ | $543.43 | $238.55 | -$1.11 | 17% 1254-6014 (7268) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 85.4¢ | $309.49 | $226.75 | +$5.57 | 15% 498-2922 (3420) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.1¢ | $248.19 | $98.08 | -$10.35 | 35% 18318-34086 (52404) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $47.01 | $29.95 | -$7.07 | 58% 19680-14468 (34148) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 84.7¢ | $123.45 | $19.5 | +$0.83 | 77% 12390-3803 (16193) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $0.46 | $0.18 | -$0.28 | 58% 760-546 (1306) |
Invested
$5,284.7
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$94.36
Record
63%
447-259 (706)
thanksforplayinCTRInvested
$1,115.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$40.37
Record
56%
455-356 (811)
DebosnysInvested
$788.81
Value
$851.8
PnL
+$62.98
Record
89%
1881-227 (2108)
HaradwaithInvested
$366.18
Value
$378.19
PnL
+$12.01
Record
41%
6281-9214 (15495)
Invested
$543.43
Value
$238.55
PnL
-$1.11
Record
17%
1254-6014 (7268)
IstarothInvested
$309.49
Value
$226.75
PnL
+$5.57
Record
15%
498-2922 (3420)
Invested
$248.19
Value
$98.08
PnL
-$10.35
Record
35%
18318-34086 (52404)
Invested
$47.01
Value
$29.95
PnL
-$7.07
Record
58%
19680-14468 (34148)
Invested
$123.45
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$0.83
Record
77%
12390-3803 (16193)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$0.28
Record
58%
760-546 (1306)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.