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3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 78¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 78¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,603

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$164.68

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$126.34

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1N 1nvoker1	Noavg 75.3¢	$2.0K	$5.2K	+$1.4K	63% 447-259 (706)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 68¢	$1.0K	$802.02	-$7.53	15% 498-2922 (3420)
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$544.98	$633.59	+$54.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.1¢	$265.45	$168.42	-$62.51
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 79.8¢	$1.3K	$790	-$176.16	53% 8266-7377 (15643)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 61.1¢	$1.1K	$472.03	-$12.62	17% 1254-6014 (7268)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.1¢	$288.45	$372.9	+$25.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.5¢	$196.01	$99.13	-$38.2
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$667.39	$137.43	-$105.65	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$132.5	$100	-$20	18% 351-1601 (1952)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$80	$79	-$1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$35	$21	-$19
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$51.59	$25.49	-$26.1	56% 18306-14226 (32532)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 30¢	$26.05	$23.58	+$15.54	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$6.21	$1.41	+$5.2	20% 2607-10331 (12938)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 62.4¢	$158.86	$0.35	+$0.21	53% 29396-26298 (55694)

1nvoker1

Invested

$1,976.18

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

63%

447-259 (706)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$1,029.78

Value

$802.02

PnL

-$7.53

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Both legs:

No$544.9868¢+$54.99

Yes$265.4533.1¢-$62.51

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,305.93

Value

$790

PnL

-$176.16

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$1,104.81

Value

$472.03

PnL

-$12.62

Record

17%

1254-6014 (7268)

Both legs:

No$288.4561.1¢+$25.58

Yes$196.0141.5¢-$38.2

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$667.39

Value

$137.43

PnL

-$105.65

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Invested

$132.5

Value

$100

PnL

-$20

Record

18%

351-1601 (1952)

Both legs:

No$8080¢-$1

Yes$3535¢-$19

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.59

Value

$25.49

PnL

-$26.1

Record

56%

18306-14226 (32532)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.05

Value

$23.58

PnL

+$15.54

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$5.2

Record

20%

2607-10331 (12938)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.86

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.