Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 38 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Person AK win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
38 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
38
Yes 100%
$2.4K
$-6.5K
0.6¢ → 0.1¢
-75% since entry · 30 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
38 of 38 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)38 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
38 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $3.8K | $935.83 | $-2.9K | — 0-2 (2) |
J- J-E-RCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.5K | $318.09 | $-1.1K | — |
TU tugatorCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.3K | $243.75 | $-1.0K | — |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR | Yes | $200.21 | $200.21 | +$0 | 0% 0-93 (93) |
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $516.51 | $196.79 | -$319.72 | — 0-3 (3) |
SM smoltraderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $250.5 | $86.28 | -$164.22 | — 0-1 (1) |
PE petanimalCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $193.87 | $68.28 | -$125.59 | — 0-14 (14) |
UP uprightuserCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $157.48 | $60 | -$97.48 | — |
GL glhfggCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $133.35 | $31.5 | -$101.85 | — |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $20.86 | $31.3 | +$10.43 | 0% 0-141 (141) |
NY NyetRiskCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $160.93 | $30.9 | -$130.03 | 0% 0-112 (112) |
 tetroseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $78.74 | $30 | -$48.74 | 0% 0-89 (89) |
JA JamesAltucherCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $121.48 | $27 | -$94.48 | — |
RE rebotsliafCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $108.67 | $25.26 | -$83.42 | 0% 0-79 (79) |
 JJoCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $124.95 | $24.9 | -$100.06 | — 0-5 (5) |
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $95.68 | $21.83 | -$73.86 | 16% 9-47 (56) |
 Gucky-45CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $43.03 | $16.4 | -$26.64 | — 0-7 (7) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $51.3 | $12.02 | -$39.28 | — 0-18 (18) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $45.37 | $9.3 | -$36.07 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $22.47 | $4.81 | -$17.66 | 13% 5-33 (38) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yes | $4.7 | $4.7 | +$4.7 | — 1-11 (12) |
PL pleaseletmealoneCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $23.44 | $4.5 | -$18.94 | — 0-3 (3) |
 HOG993CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $11.28 | $4.3 | -$6.98 | — 0-2 (2) |
0X 0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.3 | $2.4 | -$3.9 | 0% 0-121 (121) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.29 | $2.29 | +$2.29 | 0% 0-122 (122) |
Invested
$3,805.71
Value
$935.83
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$1,457.89
Value
$318.09
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
—
Invested
$1,269.45
Value
$243.75
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
—
Invested
$200.21
Value
$200.21
PnL
+$0
Record
0%
0-93 (93)
Invested
$516.51
Value
$196.79
PnL
-$319.72
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$250.5
Value
$86.28
PnL
-$164.22
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$193.87
Value
$68.28
PnL
-$125.59
Record
—
0-14 (14)
Invested
$157.48
Value
$60
PnL
-$97.48
Record
—
Invested
$133.35
Value
$31.5
PnL
-$101.85
Record
—
Invested
$20.86
Value
$31.3
PnL
+$10.43
Record
0%
0-141 (141)
Invested
$160.93
Value
$30.9
PnL
-$130.03
Record
0%
0-112 (112)
tetroseCTR<$100Invested
$78.74
Value
$30
PnL
-$48.74
Record
0%
0-89 (89)
Invested
$121.48
Value
$27
PnL
-$94.48
Record
—
Invested
$108.67
Value
$25.26
PnL
-$83.42
Record
0%
0-79 (79)
JJoCTRInvested
$124.95
Value
$24.9
PnL
-$100.06
Record
—
0-5 (5)
Invested
$95.68
Value
$21.83
PnL
-$73.86
Record
16%
9-47 (56)
Gucky-45CTR<$100Invested
$43.03
Value
$16.4
PnL
-$26.64
Record
—
0-7 (7)
Invested
$51.3
Value
$12.02
PnL
-$39.28
Record
—
0-18 (18)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$45.37
Value
$9.3
PnL
-$36.07
Record
0%
0-41 (41)
Invested
$22.47
Value
$4.81
PnL
-$17.66
Record
13%
5-33 (38)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$4.7
Record
—
1-11 (12)
Invested
$23.44
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$18.94
Record
—
0-3 (3)
HOG993CTR<$100Invested
$11.28
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$6.98
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$3.9
Record
0%
0-121 (121)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$2.29
PnL
+$2.29
Record
0%
0-122 (122)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
CTRYes — $935.83
J-E-R
CTRYes — $318.09
tugator
CTRYes — $243.75
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A
CTRYes — $200.21
Q96s3kwozynxpau
CTRYes — $196.79
smoltrader
CTRYes — $86.28
petanimal
CTRYes — $68.28
uprightuser
CTRYes — $60
glhfgg
CTRYes — $31.5
11122
CTRYes — $31.3