Consensus PnL -$141K · win rate 13% (36–245, n=281) · PM monthly #742 · holds 93 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-141.1K
Record
36W / 245L
Win Rate
13.0%
of 281 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2661
Source
PM monthly #742
Record (90 d)
23/26 · 88%
Trades
0
Markets
3,531
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
93 in listed consensus markets · 84 of 93 on the consensus side (90%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $28K · now 18¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No $20K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (14% of 14)
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $18K · now 49¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 39)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $18K · now 12¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (90% of 49)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $16K · now 12¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No $15K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (8% of 13)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $15K · now 11¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (86% of 42)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $14K · now 36¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (80% of 60)
Specialties
215 settled consensus markets · held side won 22% at an average entry of 52¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where tugator's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 13% of 189 at an average 47¢ entry (−34 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 78%(won 10% of 167)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 36% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 27)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.