Consensus PnL $180K · win rate 44% (118–151, n=269) · was PM monthly #860 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$180.5K
Record
118W / 151L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 269 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1409
Source
PM monthly #860
Record (90 d)
11/53 · 21%
Trades
107,419
Markets
782
Volume
$3.9M
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Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 27 of 36 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $127 · now 91¢with the consensus (84% of 61)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $46 · now 30¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $36 · now 45¢with the consensus (76% of 56)
- Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $15 · now 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $11 · now 3¢with the consensus (96% of 28)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $9 · now 94¢with the consensus (79% of 24)
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $8 · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 24)
- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $8 · now 1¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
Specialties
303 settled consensus markets · held side won 17% at an average entry of 6¢- Elections
+19 pts
side won 27% of 49 · avg entry 7¢
ROI +17%
- Science
+18 pts
side won 20% of 10 · avg entry 2¢
ROI +2%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 10% of 77 · avg entry 3¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 92%(won 10% of 278)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 100% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.