Consensus PnL $861K · win rate 69% (583–267, n=850) · PM monthly #419 · holds 117 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$861.4K
Record
583W / 267L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 850 settled
Batting Avg
65.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#784
Source
PM monthly #419 + pinned
Trades
181,582
Markets
1,433
Volume
$40.7M
Top consensus positions
117 in listed consensus markets · 115 of 117 on the consensus side (98%)- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?No $437K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (52% of 21)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $404K · now 88¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (43% of 28)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $110K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (50% of 24)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $49K · now 92¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (70% of 68)
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?No $29K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (83% of 18)
- Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes $29K · now 89¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (76% of 17)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $24K · now 77¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (56% of 44)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Yes $22K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (63% of 49)
Specialties
1,056 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 70¢- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+3 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 88% of 112 at an average 92¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 2% of 275)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 23% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 50% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 95% of 737)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.