No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #827 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #827
Record (90 d)
38/74 · 51%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Specialties
1,502 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 58¢- Finance
+3 pts
side won 69% of 335 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 60% of 101 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −2%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 66% of 195 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 51% of 41 at an average 59¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI +13%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 5% of 502)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 38% of 99)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 65% of 130)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 96% of 771)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.