Consensus PnL $732K · win rate 49% (33–35, n=68) · was PM monthly #855 · holds 222 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$732.0K
Record
33W / 35L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 68 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1255
Source
PM monthly #855
Record (90 d)
10/62 · 16%
Trades
18,513
Markets
863
Volume
$254.2K
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Top consensus positions
222 in listed consensus markets · 169 of 222 on the consensus side (76%)- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2.1K · now 45¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 62)
- Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $1.8K · now 45¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.7K · now 3¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $1.3K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 87)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $1.2K · now 12¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $1.1K · now 13¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $924 · now 11¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $922 · now 18¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (75% of 59)
Specialties
125 settled consensus markets · held side won 21% at an average entry of 7¢- Mentions
+28 pts
side won 40% of 15 · avg entry 12¢
ROI +5%
- Golf
+7 pts
side won 10% of 21 · avg entry 3¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+13 pts
side won 21% of 14 · avg entry 8¢
ROI +27%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 89%(won 11% of 111)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 100% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.