Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 19, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $19 held · ends Nov 20

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$19.37

Combined PnL

$1.4

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$14.07

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$1.97

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.3

Total Shares757

Combined PnL+$3.37

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 99¢	$12.67	$12.71	+$0.04	50% 634-639 (1273)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.13	$4.21	+$3.25	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$39.64	$1.36	-$2.01	15% 459-2699 (3158)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$3.23	$0.98	+$0.25	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.24	$0.11	-$0.13	20% 2580-10222 (12802)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.67

Value

$12.71

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$3.25

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$39.64

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$2.01

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.13

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5731.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5831.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.