Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 18, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 19
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$44.06
$27.61
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.13 | $16.63 | +$15.8 | 53% 29191-26096 (55287) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $12.54 | $12.33 | -$0.21 | 50% 634-639 (1273) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $4.28 | $8.04 | +$3.76 | 20% 2580-10222 (12802) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $6.43 | $5.25 | +$9.83 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $39.2 | $1.33 | -$1.87 | 15% 459-2699 (3158) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0.33 | +$0.31 | 72% 13908-5278 (19186) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.16 | $0.15 | -$0.01 | 32% 2469-5347 (7816) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.13
Value
$16.63
PnL
+$15.8
Record
53%
29191-26096 (55287)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$12.33
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
634-639 (1273)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.28
Value
$8.04
PnL
+$3.76
Record
20%
2580-10222 (12802)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$9.83
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$39.2
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$1.87
Record
15%
459-2699 (3158)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.31
Record
72%
13908-5278 (19186)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$0.01
Record
32%
2469-5347 (7816)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.