Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 20, 2026?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 21
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$100
$42.39
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.82 | -$0.09 | 49% 8853-9361 (18214) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $34.46 | $23.62 | +$25.86 | 53% 29396-26298 (55694) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 94¢ | $122.79 | $19.88 | +$1.6 | 59% 11938-8372 (20310) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $11.65 | $12.29 | +$0.65 | 50% 706-713 (1419) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $19.43 | $11.85 | +$14.43 | 35% 18318-34086 (52404) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.92 | $1.32 | -$0.86 | 15% 498-2922 (3420) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.24 | $0.59 | +$0.35 | 20% 2607-10331 (12938) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0.44 | +$0.42 | 72% 13988-5402 (19390) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.16 | $0.2 | +$0.04 | 32% 2587-5457 (8044) |
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
8853-9361 (18214)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$34.46
Value
$23.62
PnL
+$25.86
Record
53%
29396-26298 (55694)
Invested
$122.79
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$1.6
Record
59%
11938-8372 (20310)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$12.29
PnL
+$0.65
Record
50%
706-713 (1419)
Invested
$19.43
Value
$11.85
PnL
+$14.43
Record
35%
18318-34086 (52404)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$39.92
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$0.86
Record
15%
498-2922 (3420)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.59
PnL
+$0.35
Record
20%
2607-10331 (12938)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.44
PnL
+$0.42
Record
72%
13988-5402 (19390)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0.04
Record
32%
2587-5457 (8044)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.