Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 16, 2026?

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 17¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 17

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$97.27

Combined PnL

$96.11

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$97.26

Total Shares572

Combined PnL+$96.11

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.12	$91.47	+$90.66	53% 29106-25981 (55087)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.33	$3.91	+$3.58	20% 2564-10155 (12719)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$1.88	+$1.86	73% 13784-5222 (19006)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$91.47

PnL

+$90.66

Record

53%

29106-25981 (55087)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$3.58

Record

20%

2564-10155 (12719)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$1.86

Record

73%

13784-5222 (19006)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.6%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$437.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

537.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.