Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 21, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $75 held · ends Nov 22
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$75.37
-$85.86
2.8¢ → 0.5¢
-81% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1<$100 | Noavg 85.2¢ | $42.96 | $50.17 | +$7.21 | 65% 514-277 (791) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $41.57 | $18.55 | -$12.74 | 52% 31275-29168 (60443) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $76.42 | $3.7 | -$67.69 | 35% 19620-37183 (56803) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $15.71 | $2.95 | -$12.64 | 40% 6647-10049 (16696) |
clazzy1<$100Invested
$42.96
Value
$50.17
PnL
+$7.21
Record
65%
514-277 (791)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$41.57
Value
$18.55
PnL
-$12.74
Record
52%
31275-29168 (60443)
Invested
$76.42
Value
$3.7
PnL
-$67.69
Record
35%
19620-37183 (56803)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$15.71
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$12.64
Record
40%
6647-10049 (16696)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.