Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 22, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 23
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$0.5
-$58.38
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.16 | $0.31 | -$0.01 | 52% 30902-28975 (59877) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $124.41 | $0.17 | -$56.58 | 54% 12474-10723 (23197) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$1.61 | 47% 10345-11812 (22157) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.16 | $0 | -$0.18 | 28% 2794-7224 (10018) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
30902-28975 (59877)
Invested
$124.41
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$56.58
Record
54%
12474-10723 (23197)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.61
Record
47%
10345-11812 (22157)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.18
Record
28%
2794-7224 (10018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.