Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 15, 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$74.05

Combined PnL

$59.06

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$61.58

Total Shares513

Combined PnL+$60.85

No2 traders

Total Value$12.47

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$1.79

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.68	$35.17	+$33.43	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.74	$21.96	+$23.22	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98¢	$12.54	$11.26	-$1.28	50% 634-639 (1273)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$2.65	+$2.64	72% 13908-5278 (19186)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.24	$1.8	+$1.56	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$1.21	-$0.51	15% 459-2699 (3158)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.68

Value

$35.17

PnL

+$33.43

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

$21.96

PnL

+$23.22

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.54

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$1.28

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$2.64

Record

72%

13908-5278 (19186)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$1.56

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0.51

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.