Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 12, 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $341 held · ends Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$341.12

Combined PnL

$200.79

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 93.9¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$322.17

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$200.03

Yes3 traders

Total Value$18.94

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$0.76

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 93¢	$292.44	$143.12	-$2.36	15% 435-2472 (2907)
balthazar	Noavg 52.1¢	$254.21	$109.14	+$205.84	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$83.61	$54.16	-$9.42	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$47.17	$15.75	+$5.97	20% 2535-10042 (12577)
XC xcaioxCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$16.32	$9.99	-$6.33	77% 203-61 (264)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.84	$8.32	+$6.48	56% 18179-14063 (32242)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.63	+$0.61	73% 13591-5101 (18692)

Istaroth

Invested

$292.44

Value

$143.12

PnL

-$2.36

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

balthazar

Invested

$254.21

Value

$109.14

PnL

+$205.84

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$83.61

Value

$54.16

PnL

-$9.42

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$47.17

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$5.97

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

xcaioxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.32

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$6.33

Record

77%

203-61 (264)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$6.48

Record

56%

18179-14063 (32242)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.61

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.