Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 14, 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$192.97
-$36.91
95.9¢ → 99.2¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 95.7¢ | $218.31 | $174.61 | -$3.92 | 14% 461-2750 (3211) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $12.54 | $12.75 | +$0.2 | 50% 657-658 (1315) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $7.25 | $3.63 | -$19.3 | 53% 29253-26162 (55415) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $13.02 | $1.24 | -$9.05 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $5.56 | $0.67 | -$4.89 | 20% 2587-10256 (12843) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.07 | +$0.05 | 72% 13948-5333 (19281) |
IstarothInvested
$218.31
Value
$174.61
PnL
-$3.92
Record
14%
461-2750 (3211)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
657-658 (1315)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.25
Value
$3.63
PnL
-$19.3
Record
53%
29253-26162 (55415)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$9.05
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.56
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$4.89
Record
20%
2587-10256 (12843)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$0.05
Record
72%
13948-5333 (19281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.