Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 13, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $188 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$188.23

Combined PnL

-$33.37

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 99.3¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$184.58

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$7.59

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.65

Total Shares1,826

Combined PnL-$40.96

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 91.9¢	$133.47	$102.17	+$4.37	15% 430-2354 (2784)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$51.76	$54.95	+$3.19	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$22.45	$22.47	+$0.02	47% 8092-9266 (17358)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.99	$5	+$0	30% 2124-4928 (7052)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$5.57	$2.18	-$24.42	53% 28648-25583 (54231)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$15.87	$0.74	-$14.85	35% 17577-32882 (50459)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2.25	$0.73	-$1.52	20% 2494-9935 (12429)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$0.18	$0	-$0.17	17% 1066-5342 (6408)

Istaroth

Invested

$133.47

Value

$102.17

PnL

+$4.37

Record

15%

430-2354 (2784)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$51.76

Value

$54.95

PnL

+$3.19

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

8092-9266 (17358)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2124-4928 (7052)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.57

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$24.42

Record

53%

28648-25583 (54231)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.87

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$14.85

Record

35%

17577-32882 (50459)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$1.52

Record

20%

2494-9935 (12429)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

PnL

-$0.17

Record

17%

1066-5342 (6408)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.