Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$255.36

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 38.3¢

-27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,359

Combined PnL-$255.36

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$206.52	16% 427-2305 (2732)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.6¢	$665.95	$1.0K	+$363.33
└ No leg	Noavg 66.1¢	$1.1K	$653.55	-$569.85
balthazarCTR	Noavg 51.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$141.71	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 63.3¢	$354.82	$166.74	-$56.83	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 71.4¢	$518.71	$134.59	-$20.55	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.7¢	$34.59	$71.73	+$108.42
└ No leg	Noavg 71.4¢	$116.96	$62.86	-$128.97
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 38.7¢	$119.95	$118.89	-$1.07	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 73.2¢	$179.34	$112.7	-$52.92	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$57.47	$56.37	-$1.1	56% 18152-14046 (32198)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$33.22	$33	-$0.22	16% 266-1363 (1629)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$11.8	$10.35	-$1.45	47% 8058-9236 (17294)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$1.98	$1.92	-$0.06	30% 2095-4887 (6982)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$2,476.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$206.52

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

Both legs:

Yes$665.9539.6¢+$363.33

No$1,126.4166.1¢-$569.85

balthazarCTR

Invested

$1,130.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$141.71

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$354.82

Value

$166.74

PnL

-$56.83

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$518.71

Value

$134.59

PnL

-$20.55

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

Both legs:

Yes$34.5929.7¢+$108.42

No$116.9671.4¢-$128.97

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$119.95

Value

$118.89

PnL

-$1.07

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$179.34

Value

$112.7

PnL

-$52.92

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$57.47

Value

$56.37

PnL

-$1.1

Record

56%

18152-14046 (32198)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$33.22

Value

$33

PnL

-$0.22

Record

16%

266-1363 (1629)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

8058-9236 (17294)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

30%

2095-4887 (6982)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.