Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$431.68

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 94.2¢

+45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,196

Combined PnL+$398.69

Yes5 traders

Total Value$37.17

Total Shares641

Combined PnL+$32.99

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 58¢	$1.1K	$930.42	+$399.06	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
Istaroth	Noavg 94.3¢	$211.4	$173.87	-$1.56	15% 435-2472 (2907)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$39.88	$41.08	+$1.2	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.94	$14.21	+$11.27	20% 2535-10042 (12577)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$218.14	$11.6	+$14.09	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$1.84	$8.47	+$6.63	56% 18179-14063 (32242)
BO borntoolate.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.92	$2.25	+$0.38	75% 316-104 (420)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.64	+$0.62	73% 13591-5101 (18692)

balthazar

Invested

$1,090.07

Value

$930.42

PnL

+$399.06

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

Istaroth

Invested

$211.4

Value

$173.87

PnL

-$1.56

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$41.08

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.94

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$11.27

Record

20%

2535-10042 (12577)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$218.14

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$14.09

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$6.63

Record

56%

18179-14063 (32242)

borntoolate.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.38

Record

75%

316-104 (420)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.62

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.