Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 22 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Adam Hamilton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
22 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $866 held · ends Nov 7, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
22
Yes 100%
$866.07
$-8.7K
0.5¢ → 0.1¢
-91% since entry · 20 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
22 of 22 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
22 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Late
171h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $4.2K | $320.58 | $-3.8K | — |
PE petanimalCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $848.33 | $104.5 | -$743.83 | — |
 ydxisthekingCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $685.46 | $86.08 | -$599.37 | — |
J- J-E-RCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $777.63 | $53.82 | -$723.81 | — |
0X 0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $419.49 | $53.28 | -$366.21 | — |
UP uprightuserCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $393.7 | $50 | -$343.7 | — |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $706.29 | $46.54 | -$659.75 | — |
BE Better-ManCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $275 | $34.92 | -$240.07 | — |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $412.8 | $27.43 | -$385.38 | — |
JA JamesAltucherCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $307.02 | $25.5 | -$281.52 | — |
PL plumbisCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $150 | $25 | -$125 | — |
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $89.24 | $7.38 | -$81.86 | — |
LO locuspmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $54.28 | $6.55 | -$47.74 | — |
SI SitsToPeeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $94.82 | $6.13 | -$88.69 | — |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $49.7 | $5.67 | -$63.47 | — |
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $70.07 | $5 | -$65.07 | — |
 Gucky-45CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $18.99 | $2.4 | -$16.59 | — |
 HolyMoses7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $18.51 | $1.81 | -$16.7 | — |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $25.78 | $1.7 | -$24.08 | — |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.11 | $1.11 | +$1.11 | — |
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.58 | $0.58 | +$0.58 | — |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.6 | $0.1 | -$1.5 | — |
Invested
$4,165.48
Value
$320.58
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
—
Invested
$848.33
Value
$104.5
PnL
-$743.83
Record
—
ydxisthekingCTRInvested
$685.46
Value
$86.08
PnL
-$599.37
Record
—
Invested
$777.63
Value
$53.82
PnL
-$723.81
Record
—
Invested
$419.49
Value
$53.28
PnL
-$366.21
Record
—
Invested
$393.7
Value
$50
PnL
-$343.7
Record
—
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$706.29
Value
$46.54
PnL
-$659.75
Record
—
Invested
$275
Value
$34.92
PnL
-$240.07
Record
—
Invested
$412.8
Value
$27.43
PnL
-$385.38
Record
—
Invested
$307.02
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$281.52
Record
—
Invested
$150
Value
$25
PnL
-$125
Record
—
Invested
$89.24
Value
$7.38
PnL
-$81.86
Record
—
Invested
$54.28
Value
$6.55
PnL
-$47.74
Record
—
Invested
$94.82
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$88.69
Record
—
Invested
$49.7
Value
$5.67
PnL
-$63.47
Record
—
Invested
$70.07
Value
$5
PnL
-$65.07
Record
—
Gucky-45CTR<$100Invested
$18.99
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$16.59
Record
—
HolyMoses7CTR<$100Invested
$18.51
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$16.7
Record
—
Invested
$25.78
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$24.08
Record
—
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$1.11
Record
—
Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.58
Record
—
Invested
$1.6
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$1.5
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
CTRYes — $320.58
petanimal
CTRYes — $104.5
ydxistheking
CTRYes — $86.08
J-E-R
CTRYes — $53.82
0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0
CTRYes — $53.28
uprightuser
CTRYes — $50
ImJustKen
CTRYes — $46.54
Better-Man
CTRYes — $34.92
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A
CTRYes — $27.43
JamesAltucher
CTRYes — $25.5