No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #990 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #990
Record (90 d)
24/29 · 83%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Specialties
204 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 55¢- Elections
+18 pts
side won 69% of 61 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +10%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 57% of 23 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 12% of 50)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 26% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 77% of 43)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 95% of 84)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.