Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 45 of 45 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

45 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $740K held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$740.5K

Combined PnL

$730.6K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.9¢

+46% since entry · 37 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

45 of 45 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)45 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes45 traders

Total Value$740.5K

Total Shares1,592,427

Combined PnL+$730.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

45 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 18

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 30

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 45

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.8K	$290.1K	+$286.3K	68% 843-396 (1239)
J- J-E-RCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.5K	$98.6K	+$97.1K	43% 163-220 (383)
TU tugatorCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.3K	$75.6K	+$74.3K	85% 2886-490 (3376)
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.0K	$61.2K	+$60.2K	48% 120-128 (248)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$516.51	$61.0K	+$60.5K	41% 168-242 (410)
SM smoltraderCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$250.5	$26.7K	+$26.5K	43% 2135-2774 (4909)
PE petanimalCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$193.87	$21.2K	+$21.0K	38% 1008-1660 (2668)
UP uprightuserCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$157.48	$18.6K	+$18.4K	70% 168-72 (240)
GL glhfggCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$133.35	$9.8K	+$9.6K	60% 530-359 (889)
NY NyetRiskCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$160.93	$9.6K	+$9.4K	6% 14-235 (249)
tetroseCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$78.74	$9.3K	+$9.2K	42% 198-276 (474)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$19.8K	$9.2K	+$9.1K	27% 3504-9339 (12843)
JA JamesAltucherCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$121.48	$8.4K	+$8.2K	69% 107-47 (154)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$124.95	$7.7K	+$7.6K	67% 1042-511 (1553)
0X 0x4e25605fd905e9972efc0f4d8814530c655cd7a7CTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$95.68	$6.8K	+$6.7K	51% 2515-2408 (4923)
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$43.03	$5.1K	+$5.0K	29% 676-1621 (2297)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$51.3	$3.7K	+$3.7K	53% 1792-1620 (3412)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$5.6K	$3.1K	+$3.0K	57% 41574-31333 (72907)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$45.37	$2.9K	+$2.8K	47% 1936-2175 (4111)
LI LiquidifierCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$22.47	$1.5K	+$1.5K	50% 1277-1263 (2540)
probabilityCTR	Yes	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$1.5K	38% 1810-2980 (4790)
HOG993CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$11.28	$1.3K	+$1.3K	38% 576-943 (1519)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yes	$875.83	$875.83	+$875.83	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
0X 0xCB3143ee858E14d0B3FE40fFeaEa78416e646B0CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$6.3	$744	+$737.7	53% 231-206 (437)
ImJustKenCTR	Yes	$711.32	$711.32	+$711.32	53% 3355-3003 (6358)