Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (46%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $694 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$693.89

Combined PnL

-$33.26

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$431.57

Total Shares668

Combined PnL-$71.43

Down7 traders

Total Value$94.24

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$38.17

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$155.31	$168.08	+$12.77	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$66.4	$90.42	+$24.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$88.92	$77.66	-$11.26
PL ply-pm2CTR	Upavg 32.2¢	$92.18	$151.1	+$58.92	—
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 52.3¢	$152.49	$149.76	-$2.73	—
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$72.64	$80.2	+$7.56	—
ohioism<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$24.69	$44.6	+$19.91	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 81.1¢	$165.7	$24.14	-$130.77	—
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$17.75	$14.75	-$3	—
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 19¢	$6.26	$13.51	+$7.25	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60¢	$7.8	$12.99	+$5.19	—
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$13.04	$11.62	-$1.42	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 42¢	$4.2	$10	+$5.8	—
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 44¢	$6.75	$5.75	-$1	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$4.68	$4.07	-$0.61	—
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 20.9¢	$1.69	$3.31	+$1.62	—

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$155.31

Value

$168.08

PnL

+$12.77

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$66.439.3¢+$24.02

Up$88.9253.2¢-$11.26

ply-pm2CTR

Invested

$92.18

Value

$151.1

PnL

+$58.92

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$152.49

Value

$149.76

PnL

-$2.73

Record

—

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$72.64

Value

$80.2

PnL

+$7.56

Record

—

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$24.69

Value

$44.6

PnL

+$19.91

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$165.7

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$130.77

Record

—

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$14.75

PnL

-$3

Record

—

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$6.26

Value

$13.51

PnL

+$7.25

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$7.8

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$5.19

Record

—

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$13.04

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$1.42

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$4.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.8

Record

—

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.61

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$1.69

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$1.62

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.