Solana Up or Down - November 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 100¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

Total Value

$183.7

Combined PnL

$7.56

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 99.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$173.64

Total Shares177

Combined PnL+$3.74

Up3 traders

Total Value$10.06

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$3.82

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 88.5¢	$72.47	$75.63	+$3.16	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 96¢	$47.99	$48.74	+$0.75	—
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$43.17	$43.24	+$0.08	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96¢	$4.85	$5.03	+$0.18	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$2.2	$5	+$2.8	—
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$3.7	$5	+$1.3	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71¢	$1.42	$1	-$0.42	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.34	$0.06	-$0.28	—

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$72.47

Value

$75.63

PnL

+$3.16

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$47.99

Value

$48.74

PnL

+$0.75

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$43.17

Value

$43.24

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

PnL

+$2.8

Record

—

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

PnL

+$1.3

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.42

Value

PnL

-$0.42

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.28

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.