Solana Up or Down - November 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (90%) · Up at 100¢ · $244 held · ends Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

Total Value

$243.74

Combined PnL

-$4.55

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$234.04

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$7.07

Down1 trader

Total Value$9.7

Total Shares19

Combined PnL+$2.52

Up — 90%Down — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 99¢	$99	$99.5	+$0.5	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 99¢	$50.44	$50.7	+$0.25	—
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$30.33	$30.34	+$0.02	—
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 85.6¢	$15.67	$15.66	-$0.01	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$18.65	$15.37	-$3.29	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$7.18	$9.7	+$2.52	—
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 86¢	$8.7	$9.13	+$0.43	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 76¢	$11.88	$7.81	-$4.06	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 92¢	$4.7	$4.52	-$0.18	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 86¢	$1.74	$1.01	-$0.73	—

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$99

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$50.44

Value

$50.7

PnL

+$0.25

Record

—

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$30.33

Value

$30.34

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

13897651<$100

Invested

$15.67

Value

$15.66

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$18.65

Value

$15.37

PnL

-$3.29

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.18

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$2.52

Record

—

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.43

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$11.88

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$4.06

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.73

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.