Solana Up or Down - November 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 100¢ · $548 held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$547.87

Combined PnL

-$14.15

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 100¢

+72% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$131.71

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$39.76

Up10 traders

Total Value$369.91

Total Shares459

Combined PnL+$25.6

Down — 29%Up — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 54¢	$149.34	$122.87	-$17.86	—
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$93.84	$95.48	+$1.64	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$71.11	$74.64	+$3.54	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 37¢	$41.2	$61.14	+$19.94	—
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 22.2¢	$25.48	$46.26	+$20.78	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.2¢	$15.66	$23.65	+$7.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.9¢	$9.82	$22.61	+$12.79
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$37.24	$39.48	+$2.24	—
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$43.44	$38	-$4.54	—
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 94¢	$31.65	$30.47	-$1.18	—
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$14.49	$16.87	+$2.38	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 74¢	$4.44	$6	+$1.56	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 74¢	$5.77	$5.81	+$0.04	—
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 28.6¢	$29.36	$5.03	-$14.54	—
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$3.9	$3.8	-$0.1	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 98.3¢	$6.93	$2.02	-$0.01	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$7.26	$0.01	-$7.25	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$149.34

Value

$122.87

PnL

-$17.86

Record

—

13897651<$100

Invested

$93.84

Value

$95.48

PnL

+$1.64

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$71.11

Value

$74.64

PnL

+$3.54

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$41.2

Value

$61.14

PnL

+$19.94

Record

—

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$25.48

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$20.78

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$15.6622.2¢+$7.99

Up$9.8228.9¢+$12.79

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$37.24

Value

$39.48

PnL

+$2.24

Record

—

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$43.44

Value

$38

PnL

-$4.54

Record

—

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$30.47

PnL

-$1.18

Record

—

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$14.49

Value

$16.87

PnL

+$2.38

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

PnL

+$1.56

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.36

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$14.54

Record

—

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.25

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.